Computer Models Hint at Busy August in Atlantic & Gulf
Since the beginning of hurricane season 2025 it's been relatively quiet in the Atlantic. If computer models are correct, that is likely to change by mid-August, possibly affecting areas along the Gulf Coast as well at the East Coast of the United States.
This year was predicted to be a busier hurricane season than normal, but the slow start has caused some to wonder if those predictions were off. Dust from the Sahara and wind shear have both contributed to the lower numbers of storms that were able to develop and strengthen in the Atlantic so far. The storms that have formed haven't been very long-lived and only reached tropical storm intensity, though they did cause a lot of flood damage and several flooding-related deaths.
This week I've seen information from 2 different sources that indicate that tropical storm development in the Atlantic and Gulf may increase during the first half of August with possible impacts on the Southeastern United States. Today, when I checked Weather Lab, the Google experimental AI model for tropical cyclone prediction, I found that several possible cyclones show up in the Gulf and the Atlantic including some that appear to be of major hurricane strength.
AI is not the only source predicting some tropical cyclone formation in August. In his weather update, Meteorologist Travis Roberts also pointed out that the European ensemble model is picking up on tropical development in the Atlantic and Gulf regions.
The best place to get your forecast is NOAA's National Hurricane Center, and they're not forecasting any tropical cyclone activity in the next 7 days. Using AI models is still in the early stages for hurricane forecasters, but it's interesting to see what is being predicted and we'll see within a couple of weeks how those models compare to reality. Experienced hurricane forecasters will use the more conventional models along with the AI models to create better forecasts for tropical storms and hurricanes as the year progresses.